ANALYSIS
I have just completed an analysis of popular music trends for clients based on our artists ranking system between March ’22 & September ’25. I thought you all might like to see the headlines.
The period was chosen as to be pre-Taylor Swift’s dominance (top of the listings between June ’23 – April ’25) to the present where her market share (ahead of the new release) has returned to a similar level. When an artist dominates so much it does tend to cloud trends or make statistics less reliable by diminishing the size of the sample available for other artists. History seems to show when an artist has that level of dominance, they may then have a long successful career (eg. David Bowie top of the pile form July ’73 – Oct ‘74) but they usually fail to achieve those levels again….That is apart from The Beatles who four times topped the rankings.
It won’t be a surprise to anyone to note the shift from UK & Irish artists dominance to North American dominance particularly in the ‘pure pop’ market; UK & Ire 59.4% down to 39.2%; N. Am. 29.7% to 55.6% market share across all genres.
UK Rap has been almost totally wiped out as a commercial force (down from 10.8%) and N. Am. Rap down to about a third of its level and only achieving that thanks in the main to Kendrick Lamar’s excellent album and him managing to keep squeaky clean! The Rap market seems to have gone to Electro/Dance (up 3.9%) and many artists also reinventing themselves within R&B et al. (N. Am R&B 8% increase) This decline is no doubt most likely associated with the various scandals associated with the genre (but that doesn’t fully explain the recent almost total wipe out of UK rap in the market, although availability of new product from established artists might also be an issue).
Rock including Indie Rock has made a comeback of sorts with Rock no longer totally dominated by ‘heritage acts’ (ie acts active before 2000). North American acts are lagging behind UK & Irish acts but still showing a revival. UK & Ire 16.1% to 25.3% N. Am 0.7% to 4.3%.
The success of Electro/Dance and Rock ahead of Rap could possibly indicate a move back to the sonic experience ahead of lyrically heavy content.
C&W, when you take Taylor Swift out of the equation is still bumping on at the level it has been since the late 1960’s with just the occasional big name artist boosting the genre; Taylor Swift could easily be viewed as the Jim Reeves of the 2020s!
The role of the media needs to highlighted with regard to C&W, a genre that is continually ‘talked up’ with little actual statistical evidence in the UK to back this up. There is also a degree of attempted manipulation of the media by the big companies with regard to implication by association that many US artists are experiencing over the P. Diddy trial etc. There is also a perception often promoted that rock is dead when lets face it a 29.6% market share is none too shabby!
Where next; firstly how will Taylor Swift do in the longer term, will she follow disappointing (In the industry’s view) recent sales market performances of Ed Sheeran, Beyonce & Eminem, or will she kick the trend that is starting to haunt many established ‘big names’; Secondly will Dave* or others be able to resurrect UK Rap; thirdly what next for Oasis, will they make a play for market dominance again with a live album and possibly new material, likewise will more ‘new’ rock acts follow in Fontaines DC & Sleep Token’s wake; and will their success stimulate a better performance for UK & Irish acts.